NoEstimates Workshop: Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy

“When will it be done?” It’s a question we all have to answer. How do we forecast completion dates with less effort and more accuracy? If you’re keen to know how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability — this group boardgame-based workshop will help you understand what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join this session to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!

Outline/Structure of the Deep Dive

The timings are basically:
*15-20 minutes: Explain rules
*40-90 minutes: Play
*20-50 minutes: Debrief

Learning Outcome

  • Learn the basics of NoEstimates and why the concept can help
  • Find out through experimentation what — and how much — different factors influence delivery time
  • Learn how to create a probabilistic forecast that provides a less risky way to plan
  • Understand how to reduce variation that affects — and creates risk in — delivery

Target Audience

Anyone who has to answer the question "When will it be done?"

Prerequisites for Attendees


schedule Submitted 11 months ago

Public Feedback

comment Suggest improvements to the Speaker
  • Matt Carlson
    By Matt Carlson  ~  11 months ago
    reply Reply

    Hi Matt - Thanks for taking the time to submit a session to Agile Games 2019!  Generally speaking, you've given us a good idea about what we could expect in terms of the topic, learning outcomes, and your session requirements.

    Two questions I have about your submission are:

    1. Could you provide us with additional details about the "Outline/Structure" of your session?

    2. While the venue does have rectangular tables and plenty of chairs, they won't allow us to move the tables during the session.  Is that a constraint you could work around?