Estimating Vs Forecasting - Using a Monte Carlo Tool

Are your projects on time?  Are your estimates accurate or at least in the ball park?  This session will review several estimating techniques commonly used over the last 30 years.  We'll contrast these techniques to the use of a simulator tool to gain more accurate forecasts.  The forecasts will enable you to be more predictable and offer you collateral when negotiating completion dates. 

The session will include a demo of a Monte Carlo simulation tool.

This talk was delivered at an Agile Philly Meet Up on March 21, 2017.  An encore presentation is scheduled for the Agile Philly one-day conference on October 23.2017,

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Outline/structure of the Session

This presentation begins with a review of traditional estimating techniques - 15 minutes.

We'll move into an explanation of forecasting and the use of Monte Carlo simulation tools.  what they are and how they work. - 10 minutes.

We finish with about 20 minutes of live demo.


Learning Outcome

Appreciation of the difference between estimating (in all its earlier forms) and forecasting - one uses subjective guessing while the other uses scientific data.  Attendees will understand why the later is a better approach and will be given access to a starter set of tools to use.

Target Audience

Anyone looking for a more accurate, scientific method to predict the completion of IT projects.



schedule Submitted 1 year ago

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  • Bob Payne
    By Bob Payne  ~  1 year ago
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    Prefer the "Predicting the Completion of the Death Star" title if it is a similar talk.

    You could also pull in Kanban and WIP and Flow optimization if that is part of your talk.

    Slight update to make the description more descriptive  and the title more compelling.