Within Agile Scrum, how do you provide an estimate when you could reach MVP/MMP?

In traditional project estimation, you might complete a full WBS, estimate each element, sum it all up to arrive at total effort, lay out resource and technical dependencies, and finally add in appropriate buffers to get a project completion date.

Since in Agile we iteratively build and refine the tasks and constantly adjust priorities, the traditional way doesn't work. But why do we need to? Because in most organizations, the external budgeting and planning processes have not yet adopted Organizational Agility. Annual cycles of budgeting and planning still wants overall project estimates. Epic Poker extends the Sprint Planning Poker concepts to collections of stories (Epics), and provides a analytic tool to predict how long it might take to get to MVP.

Once there, the Epic Points can then be used to calculate and monitor a modified form of EVM to show progress to stakeholders


Outline/Structure of the Lightning Talk

  • You’re using Agile on your team, but leadership really really really wants to have an idea how long till MVP. How? First, deep breath.
  • Create a very high level structure—groups of stories that make up an Epic. Plan a half day to talk through the Epics. When decently understood, play planning poker.
    • Not the same scale as story points. Just rank them relative to each other
    • Any Epic over 40 is worth considering breaking up
  • Pick one Epic (small, and if it’s MVP all stories should have same priority), create all the stories and assign Story Points. Calculate an Epic Points Multiplier, EPM = SP/EP. Now you can estimate the total SP for all the Epics combined. That still doesn’t give a schedule—you need velocity
  • Once you get through a couple sprints, you will need to rebaseline all the calculations
  • Cautions
    • Very rough estimations—recommend at least doubling the estimate to get projections
    • Take a deep review of the Epics; missing a chunk of requirements can have serious impact

Learning Outcome

An adaptive tool for Agile-fall implementations

Target Audience

Product Owners, Project Manager, and ScrumMasters

Prerequisites for Attendees

Understand Sprint Planning Poker, traditional budgeting cycles

schedule Submitted 1 year ago

Public Feedback

comment Suggest improvements to the Speaker
  • George Dinwiddie
    By George Dinwiddie  ~  1 year ago
    reply Reply

    I think the submission could be improved by:

    • this one also needs a more thorough description
    • Bruce Telford
      By Bruce Telford  ~  1 year ago
      reply Reply

      Thanks, George.

      Updated! Did that help?

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