How much ($) and how long (time) of Large-Scale Agile Projects: The Estimation Challenge
Estimating how much a project would cost and how long it would take has always been a challenge. These are critical business questions, and not answering them is not an option. Estimating large-scale projects is even more difficult and complicated not only because of their large scale and distributed nature, but also due to faulty estimation methods widely used today. Large-scale agile projects consist of several teams (organized into programs and portfolios). Teams are often distributed. If you are doing story point estimations and generating reports for large-scale agile projects in blissful ignorance of the fact that story point scales used by different teams may not be the same, you will make wrong decisions caused by wrong estimates and metrics.
All Agile Lifecycle Management tools expect and assume that the story points entered by you in the tool are "normalized" across teams, i.e., they follow the same scale. Story points entered into the tool without normalization (garbage-in) will generate meaningless reports and metrics (garbage-out).
You may also be hard pressed to estimate portfolios and programs when their stories are not even defined. This is like estimating something that is unknown!
I will present solutions to these and other estimation challenges for large-scale agile projects.
I will present the Calibrated Normalization Method (CNM) for scalable estimation, which I have developed and applied in my client engagements since 2010. CNM promotes local, decentralized, and autonomous decision making at the team level by allowing teams to use their own story point scales, and normalizing team story points with a novel technique. I will also contrast and compare CNM with centralized methods and the SAFe method for estimation.
I will demonstrate the use of a normalization calculator for doing normalization math needed for bottom-up as well as top-down estimations in large-scale projects. This calculator has been developed and refined with actual usage; it makes story point normalization calculations very quick and easy, and avoids human errors.
Outline/structure of the Session
I will first present the challenges of developing estimation and metrics for large-scale projects using a concrete example of a large-scale projects with 2 programs and a total of 8 agile teams.
I will explain the need for story point normalization to be able to properly estimate large-scale agile projects.
I will then illustrate centralized, semi-distributed and fully-distributed estimation methods using the concrete example of the large-scale project of 2 programs and 8 agile teams.
I will finally demonstrate the use of a simple normalization calculator.
Understand the trade-offs and advantages of different large-scale estimation methods: centralized, semi-distributed, and fully distributed methods, and be able to choose an estimation method appropriate to your situation.
Understand how to use CNM for both bottom-up (from teams to programs up to portfolios) and top-down (from portfolio down to programs and down to teams) estimation for both fix time/flex scope and fix scope/flex time agile projects.
Experience scalable estimation methods through an example of a large-scale project with 2 programs and 8 agile teams.
Understand the use of story point normalization calculator.
This normalization calculator will be provided to all attendees of the session.
ScrumMasters, Project Managers, Program Managers, Product Managers, Portfolio Managers, PMOs, business managers, Team Leads
schedule Submitted 2 years ago
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Agile DC 2014 Track Government
Agile Methods Embedded in the United States Military War fighting Methods.
a) Title –
Agile Methods Embedded in the United States Military War fighting Methods. How OODA & MDMP War Fighting & Maneuver Warfare Stacks up Against Agile Software Development. Reflections of a Crew Dog / Scrum Master
b) Summary –
Agile = Military Decision Making Process
SCRUM = OODA loop Observe Orient Decide Act
Military Maneuver war theory = Lean principles
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Boyd’s OODA Loop Applied Relates human behavior
Goal: Successful interaction with other loops
Objective: Get inside the opposing OODA Loop
Outcome: Destructive: Air Combat, Warfare
Outcome: Constructive: Agile Software Engineering Process
When you’re doing OODA “loops” right, accuracy and speed improve together; they don’t trade off. A primary function of Agile “loops” is to build an organization that gets better and better at things.
Additionally this lecture shows numerous crossover examples of MDMP and Agile in general along with an overview of how Maneuver warfare is an adaptation of Lean principles.
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d) Learning Objectives
Learning Objective - Provide Federal DOD Agilests ways communicate to Military decision makers that Agile Scum is OODA MDMP only by different terms. It is nothing new just being applied differently using a new vocabulary of terms.
Outcome - Present the similarities of Agile Scrum vs traditional proven Military Decision Making Processes.
Outcome - Provide bridge of understanding between AGILE SCRUM and OODA & MDMP for Military and DOD contractors that are unfamiliar with the Agile methodologies.
Outcome - Present talk tracks and narratives that demonstrate how the Agile Methodology complements MDMP.
e. Target Audience –
The primary level of audience understanding and comprehension is Level 3. Performing – Target audience is experienced Scrum/agile practitioners (2+ years)
This is a very focused / specialized session for those that can apply the lessons. However it is a very cool session for those that just want to sit in and see how Scrum is applied in Aerial Combat dogfights and Agile in the broader war fighting process.
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f) Information for Review Team – Link to Presentation: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=FEDBE246E52347F9&resid=FEDBE246E52347F9!1092&app=WordPdf
g) Presentation History –
This presentation was given at the Agile in Government Summit in Washington DC 2014. It has been well received within the Federal and DOD space.
It is new thought capital and slide ware that has not been presented to a general agile audience.
About the presenter: This lecture is presented by LtCol Tom Friend USAF Retired. A US Military Combat veteran, Pilot, Squadron Commander that has operational experience in the Navy, Air Force, and served on the ground with the Army and Marines as Forward Air Controller. He is a distinguished graduate from Air War College and has a BS in Aeronautics. On the federal side he is a graduate of The Army Logistic Management College in federal contracting. He has served as a Federal Acquisition Program manager and Acceptance test pilot at a US Military aircraft manufacturing facility. He additionally has 20+ years as a project manager and 10+ years of Agile XP SCRUM software development experience within various IT markets.
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