location_city Brisbane schedule Sep 27th 02:00 - 02:25 PM AEST place Z302 people 26 Interested

This session talks to the hilarious/scary behaviour that surrounds estimates and forecasts.

I'll look to discuss:

  • why teams need to estimate
  • some of my own funny experiences when discussing estimates with teams
  • the difference between estimates and forecasts
  • probabilistic vs deterministic forecasting methods

You'll level up by being more aware of the problematic behaviours with estimates, and how probabilistic forecast methods can help.


Outline/Structure of the Talk

Discussion on what drives teams to estimate, what are good reasons, what are poor

How estimates affect the behaviours of teams, sharing examples of the not so good behaviours I have observed

Providing an understanding of the difference of forecasts vs estimates

Hi-lighting the differences between deterministic and probabilistic techniques

Sharing the Monte Carlo method and how it can be applied in a delivery team context

Learning Outcome

Participants will gain:

- Insights into how much effort should be placed in producing estimates

- An understanding of deterministic and probabilistic techniques

- Some tools to help with forecasts

Target Audience

Teams, Leaders, Planners

Prerequisites for Attendees

Have had some experience with estimation in Agile environments.
Somewhat familiar with story points or other relative estimation practices.

schedule Submitted 4 years ago

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