Gambling on Estimates
This session talks to the hilarious/scary behaviour that surrounds estimates and forecasts.
I'll look to discuss:
- why teams need to estimate
- some of my own funny experiences when discussing estimates with teams
- the difference between estimates and forecasts
- probabilistic vs deterministic forecasting methods
You'll level up by being more aware of the problematic behaviours with estimates, and how probabilistic forecast methods can help.
Outline/Structure of the Talk
Discussion on what drives teams to estimate, what are good reasons, what are poor
How estimates affect the behaviours of teams, sharing examples of the not so good behaviours I have observed
Providing an understanding of the difference of forecasts vs estimates
Hi-lighting the differences between deterministic and probabilistic techniques
Sharing the Monte Carlo method and how it can be applied in a delivery team context
Learning Outcome
Participants will gain:
- Insights into how much effort should be placed in producing estimates
- An understanding of deterministic and probabilistic techniques
- Some tools to help with forecasts
Target Audience
Teams, Leaders, Planners
Prerequisites for Attendees
Have had some experience with estimation in Agile environments.
Somewhat familiar with story points or other relative estimation practices.
schedule Submitted 4 years ago
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