Your CTO is pressuring you for timelines, accurate estimates and educated guesses about when a team will complete a project. You’ve played the guesstimation game, and didn’t like it. This session will show a path to providing consistent, algorithmically generated forecasts that your leadership will rely on.

Come learn how to provide forecasts that address: Progressive Elaboration, “I don’t have enough data”, my team structure isn’t consistent, my team is remote and my team throughput isn’t consistent.

We’ll start with a quick overview of how to build a forecast and then go through a few lessons learned from calculating forecasts the past 4+ years. You’ll leave with tips on how to get started, the value of doing forecasting and things to avoid.


Outline/Structure of the Talk

Overview of Statistical Forecasting - How it works: 10 minutes

Presentation of Lessons Learned with Anecdotes: 35 minutes

  • Not enough data
  • How to Deal with Progressive Elaboration
  • Alternate team structures and calculating throughput
  • TBD
  • TBD
  • Making the case with management

Questions: 5 minutes

Learning Outcome

The mathematics of the forecasting algorithm will be explained.

Approaches to addressing difficulties encountered using forecasting, when:

  • You're just getting started (I don't have any data)
  • Your team dynamic / structure changes
  • You start a new project
  • You want to guide/influence your leadership on project prioritization, etc.

Target Audience

Agile Team Leaders / Coaches / Software Development Team Managers who want to provide transparent project forecasts for their teams and company leaders

Prerequisites for Attendees

2+ years experience using an Agile process.

Desire to understand how to present a consistent forecast to organizational leadership that accounts for team performance fluctuations.


schedule Submitted 2 years ago

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