Agile Estimation and Planning (that doesn't suck)
In many organisations, planning has become an end in itself, the accumulation of Points the driving force. More and more time is being spent wrangling over estimates, and for what? Plans aren’t becoming more accurate, reliable or valuable.
The first step is admitting we have a problem. We’ll explore some good (and not so good) reasons to estimate and plan. We’ll talk about the limitations and common abuses of the Story Points / Velocity approach.
I’ll then introduce you to a more powerful, reliable and nuanced approach to forecasting your future progress with Monte Carlo simulation. You’ll have a better idea of where you’re headed, and you can even retire your planning poker cards and leave long estimation sessions behind. Come along to find out how!
Outline/structure of the Session
- 10 minutes - What's wrong with the most common approaches to agile estimation and planning right now?
- 15 minutes - Fundamentals of forecasting in complex contexts
- 15 minutes - An introduction to Monte Carlo simulation
- Why and how common estimation and planning practices are flawed
- What is needed for predictability and valid forecasting in a complex context
- What Monte Carlo simulation is, and how it can help forecast future delivery dates
Scrum Masters, Product Owners/Managers, Project/Portfolio Managers.
schedule Submitted 1 month ago
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In this talk we will speak about the reasons why traditional project estimation and planning is misaligned with some of the problems that we are trying to solve in technology. We will dust off an ill-gotten major in econometrics and introduce the audience to some basic forecasting techniques that are used to give predictability to complex problems in other domains.
We'll talk about what is needed to first create predictable patterns of delivery, and then demonstrate a couple of different approaches to using your team's historic data to generate powerful forecasts of your future progress.
Finally we will talk about some of the challenges of using historical data as a predictor of future performance and ways in which metric selection, seasonal events, and team process can affect both validity and precision.
From Consultant to Client
Join Shannon and Tim for a fast paced account of their move from being high-flying consultants to down-to-earth product people.
Where do they now add value? How has their relationship with their team changed? How many timesheets are they doing?
All will be revealed!