Agile Estimation and Planning (that doesn't suck)

In many organisations, planning has become an end in itself, the accumulation of Points the driving force. More and more time is being spent wrangling over estimates, and for what? Plans aren’t becoming more accurate, reliable or valuable.


The first step is admitting we have a problem. We’ll explore some good (and not so good) reasons to estimate and plan. We’ll talk about the limitations and common abuses of the Story Points / Velocity approach.


I’ll then introduce you to a more powerful, reliable and nuanced approach to forecasting your future progress with Monte Carlo simulation. You’ll have a better idea of where you’re headed, and you can even retire your planning poker cards and leave long estimation sessions behind. Come along to find out how!

 
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Outline/structure of the Session

  • 10 minutes - What's wrong with the most common approaches to agile estimation and planning right now?
  • 15 minutes - Fundamentals of forecasting in complex contexts
  • 15 minutes - An introduction to Monte Carlo simulation
  • Questions

Learning Outcome

  • Why and how common estimation and planning practices are flawed
  • What is needed for predictability and valid forecasting in a complex context
  • What Monte Carlo simulation is, and how it can help forecast future delivery dates

 

Target Audience

Scrum Masters, Product Owners/Managers, Project/Portfolio Managers.

schedule Submitted 6 months ago

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