Learnings from 4 Years of Statistical Forecasting
Your CTO is pressuring you for timelines, accurate estimates and educated guesses about when a team will complete a project. You’ve played the guesstimation game, and didn’t like it. This session will show a path to providing consistent, algorithmically generated forecasts that your leadership will rely on.
Come learn how to provide forecasts that address: Progressive Elaboration, “I don’t have enough data”, my team structure isn’t consistent, my team is remote and my team throughput isn’t consistent.
We’ll start with a quick overview of how to build a forecast and then go through a few lessons learned from calculating forecasts the past 4+ years. You’ll leave with tips on how to get started, the value of doing forecasting and things to avoid.
Outline/Structure of the Talk
Overview of Statistical Forecasting - How it works: 10 minutes
Presentation of Lessons Learned with Anecdotes: 35 minutes
- Not enough data
- How to Deal with Progressive Elaboration
- Alternate team structures and calculating throughput
- Making the case with management
Questions: 5 minutes
The mathematics of the forecasting algorithm will be explained.
Approaches to addressing difficulties encountered using forecasting, when:
- You're just getting started (I don't have any data)
- Your team dynamic / structure changes
- You start a new project
- You want to guide/influence your leadership on project prioritization, etc.
Agile Team Leaders / Coaches / Software Development Team Managers who want to provide transparent project forecasts for their teams and company leaders
Prerequisites for Attendees
2+ years experience using an Agile process.
Desire to understand how to present a consistent forecast to organizational leadership that accounts for team performance fluctuations.