Forecasting using Data 101

Begin your journey into using data to probabilistically forecast and plan projects and products. This workshop walks through a hypothetical website upgrade where participants have to make critical decisions as a group using probabilistic forecasting. Don't be scared. There is no math, but lots of dice.

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Outline/Structure of the Workshop

4 part practical exercise for groupd of 4-8 people. Some intro exercises using penp paperpand diced to teach basic concepts of probability.

Learning Outcome

How to estimate how many stories in a feature using reference class forecasting.

How to size a feature using probabilistic forecasting of historical story per feature samples.

How to use historical throughput or velocity data to forecast how long a feature will take. And what features will fit into a deadline.

How to select an optimum start order using cost of delay.

Target Audience

Agile product owners and executives

schedule Submitted 4 months ago

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  • 120 Mins

    Using the game "Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes", we'll explore and highlight teamwork, communication, developing shared language, creating a shared understanding, and so much more. This session will be an interactive session for a small group, with other observing; with multiple rounds, pretty much anyone and everyone who wants to participate will be able to, but no one will be forced to participate! This is a very practical team activity, which easily scales beyond the team, and works well in-person, but even better with distributed teams as we explore the ways we need to interact when not co-located.