Defining a delivery strategy is difficult. We tend to underestimate the risks, aren’t explicit about our assumptions, and don’t involve the delivery team early enough in the process. I recently introduced the idea of delivering in bets to several clients. The idea that each delivery is a series of bets with different odds and risks. Each bet or investment could be matched with our corresponding confidence levels. For those bets deemed risky, we improved our odds by placing smaller bets. Delivering in bets helped us remain outcome focused, view our decisions as a portfolio, and express the expected timeframe of payouts. In each case, mindsets shifted and delivery performance improved.

In this talk, Chris will demonstrate how using bets can reshape your delivery approach. He’ll show how using some familiar tools such as Opportunity Canvas, Dual Track Agile, Story Mapping, and Monte Carlo Forecasting can improve results. He’ll discuss different methods for defining and sizing releases. Participants will leave with a new approach for identifying and forecasting a delivery.


Outline/Structure of the Talk

  • What is a bet? How does this language help and reshape our thinking?
    • Bets help us remain outcome focused
    • Bets communicate odds, payouts, and risk
  • Explain 4 Quadrant Model of Product Development
  • Create an Opportunity Canvas and Story Map to frame bet
  • Use Dual Track Agile to reduce risk on larger bets with smaller bets
  • Slice Story Map using bet thinking and results from Dual Track
  • Determine size and odds of bet using a Monte Carlo Forecast worksheet
  • Update Story Map to communicate and align delivery strategy

Learning Outcome

Gain understanding of modern product development using 4 Quadrant model

How to use the Opportunity Canvas to frame a bet (feature or capability you intend to deliver)

How leveraging Dual Track Agile reduces risk on bigger bets

How to use Story Maps for communicating risk and alignment of the delivery strategy

How to use a Monte Carlo forecast worksheet to size deliveries (bets) and communicate likelihood/confidence level with stakeholders

Target Audience

Product Managers, Product Owners, Scrum Masters, UX Leads, Engineering Leads, participants creating a release or delivery plan

Prerequisites for Attendees

There are no required prerequisites other than working as part of an Agile team. Some experience with sprint planning, release planning, or defining how work will be sliced and delivered would be helpful, but not required.

schedule Submitted 7 months ago