Financing Agile Delivery with Forecasts

Your team’s been trained to deliver new features in a short time frame. You’re estimating work using abstractions like “story points”. The predictability and quality of delivery has improved. However, every December you’re still asked to estimate large initiatives for annual budgeting. Something doesn’t make sense and you’re having a hard time explaining it to senior leadership.

Those funding projects are trying to invest wisely and mitigate risk. They need to understand what to fund and what to avoid while looking at scary numbers. However, they’re still using conventional methods of mitigating risk with big plans and committed dates.

How agile can your organization be when budgets are designed for large fixed cost, scope, and time projects? In this session we’ll talk about how to mitigate financial risk and improve return on investment by working in smaller batches. Join us and learn how you can start forecasting!

 
3 favorite thumb_down thumb_up 0 comments visibility_off  Remove from Watchlist visibility  Add to Watchlist
 

Outline/Structure of the Talk

0:00 introduction – an explanation of the disconnect between large batch planning and small batch delivery

Theme 1 – The need for estimation

0:10 – making a good business decision requires knowledge what you expect to get for your money. This won’t change. Understanding the pains of your PMO and finance team.

0:20 – Why estimating large IT projects is so difficult and why that wont change. Understanding the pains of your delivery teams.

Theme 2 – Other complex systems and how to make sense of them

0:30 – Weather systems are complex. Useful estimates can still be developed about their behavior in the near term.

0:40 – Financial systems, like the stock market, are also complex. With different tools we can make useful forecasts from which to make better business and financial decisions

0:45 – A discussion of risk mitigation techniques from the financial world that can be used in the project delivery space, such as forecasting models, technical analysis, portfolio balancing, diversification, and dollar-cost averaging.

Theme 3 – how you can shape the conversation

0:50 – No one would ask a stock picker to accurately predict the price of a stock one year from now and expect it to be right. Getting leadership to understand IT delivery is as complex as the stock market and you can use similar risk mitigation tools is the first step

0:55 – Q/A

Learning Outcome

  • How to determine which projects to manage with a predictive vs adaptive approach.
  • A few new tools to make better business decisions about what projects to fund.
  • How to use the tools to predict weather and the stock market to forecast project end dates

Target Audience

Managers, Directors, Executives, or anyone responsible for budgeting and financial estimates

Prerequisites for Attendees

Attendees should have a high-level understanding of how budgeting works in traditional organizations and the complexities of large project delivery estimates

schedule Submitted 9 months ago

Public Feedback

comment Suggest improvements to the Speaker

  • Liked Ellen Grove
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Ellen Grove - Making our Mark: Drawing Together to Enhance Collaboration

    90 Mins
    Workshop
    Beginner

    Co-creating drawings helps teams enhance their systems thinking abilities by really seeing the big picture. A group of people talking around a whiteboard is an effective way to share ideas across a team. Imagine how much richer the conversation is when everyone on the team has a marker in their hand and is actively contributing! Graphic visualization is an important tool for talking about new ideas, generating insights and developing shared understanding. In a team context, drawing is a thinking tool rather than an artistic endeavour. When everyone participates in creating drawings, all team members can see how things fit together and what mental models are at play in defining the situation. And, by drawing together, the team is collaboratively creating meaningful records that are being validated and updated.

    Come along on a visual adventure into how teams can collaboratively visualize ideas and make sure that everyone at the table has a voice. In this workshop, we will warm up with some basic doodling skills practice. No drawing experience is required to take part in this session: if you can hold a marker, we can teach you the skills needed to put your ideas on paper. Together we'll consider the ways that collaborative drawing can be used to enhance group work, and we will share practical activities that you can take back to use with your team for setting the stage, gathering information, and sharing stories.

  • Liked Lee Elliott
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Lee Elliott - How to #FAIL at Agile

    Lee Elliott
    Lee Elliott
    Director of Agile
    Prodigy Game
    schedule 9 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    “Are we Agile yet?”, “Of course we are agile, we stand up every day”, “We have a hybrid Waterfall/Agile technique”. Do any of these sound familiar to you?

    After several years at multiple organizations it is interesting to find the same mistakes being made over and over again. This talk will discuss the various ways that your company can fail at agile and what you can do about it.

  • Liked Dave Sharrock
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Dave Sharrock / Melissa Boggs - Don’t Panic: Stories of Cultural Change

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate
    Don't underestimate the power of your vision to change the world. Whether that world is your office, your community, an industry or a global movement, you need to have a core belief that what you contribute can fundamentally change the paradigm or way of thinking about problems.
    -- Leroy Hood
    You can’t attend an agile conference these days without hearing about organizational culture. Cultural change is not optional for most organizations that want to become more agile. Agility requires a mindset that means many will have to change their traditions, habits, and behaviors.
    But culture is difficult to work with. It’s intimidating; We begin to panic, asking ourselves: “Why do I feel powerless to affect change in my organization? What does it say about me or my org? What does it say about the likelihood of me being able to make these positive shifts outside my team?” and ultimately we may talk ourselves out of any change at all.
    However, wecaninspire others to see the value in the change. Creating sustainable cultural change means creating a movement within your organization, and this is done one story, one experience at a time. Learn how to recognize your existing culture, identify the areas that require evolution, and create a movement that inspires change.
  • 60 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    For anyone willing to take some risk and create a success on your own terms.

    -This Agile Business presentation best represents: Experience, Exploration and Adaptation.

    "This talk is centered Agile being all about People and Business - on what’s in it for you and what’s in it for your clients.

    I initiated the McCafé concept at McDonald's and will share both the development stages and collaborative drivers. It’s about understanding where the real levers of power lie – with YOU.

    I will step beyond Agile for IT – and show how Agile Values bring the Business and People together – I open the Kimono with the client, build the relationship and I will share with the audience:

    How and What real life experiences were discovered with the McCafé launch. The presentation has useful lessons about Agile Business techniques to help participants gain insight and develop important skills with Executives and Clients. It’s a fundamental shift in mindset.

    Instead of focusing on what you can sell, the focus is shifted to what your unique talents are. Discover more fulfillment in the process of uniting and practicing with your client.

    Can't wait to share!!

  • Liked Pawel Mysliwiec
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Pawel Mysliwiec - Lead with CARE - simple framework to create, foster and enable meaningful connections

    Pawel Mysliwiec
    Pawel Mysliwiec
    Enabler
    Pyxis Technologies
    schedule 8 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    Pressured by results, overwhelmed by schedules to meet and expectations to live up to we so often lack to recognize the power of meaningful human connections around us. Still, when we recall some of the leaders that created the most lasting change in our professional and personal lives, there are a few common traits that seem to be part of their behavior.

    I have lived and practiced various roles in my life and career, and derived a simple way of reminding myself on how to create more meaningful connections for more powerful impact on the human level. In this talk I will present for the first time what has driven my teaching, coaching and leading along these years.

    CARE stands for curiosity, authenticity, respect and empathy. And it represents care, genuine and uninterested, for people around us- colleagues, relatives, managers and reports. In an illustrated way I will tell stories about how this simple framework can change the impact of your leadership and foster a stronger engagement for anything you stand for.

  • Liked Gaël Rebmann
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Gaël Rebmann / Barbara Schultz - Gam'Inception: learn how to build serious games by playing serious games

    60 Mins
    Workshop
    Beginner

    Gam'Inception is a game made of games to learn how to create games... Sounds funnier than dreams in dreams in dreams, don't you think Mr. Nolan?

    By playing three serious games, attendees will learn why serious games are a very efficient way to discover new concepts, mechanisms or tools and that everyone is able to build her/his own ones:

    • Attendees will have to face me in a drawing duel. Be prepared, I'm almost as good with pens than with ASCII art:
      _██_
      ( • ̮ •)
      ( . • . )
      (... • .. )
    • Then, they will travel in time, to Venice, the city of Doges, for a mix of Game of the Goose, a game book and an escape game
    • Finally, they will participate to Top Chef (at least my version of the show...) and will find their own recipes to cook their own games

    The workshop is almost entirely interactive and requires no prior knowledge about serious games (you don't even need to know what a serious game is). At the end of the session, attendees will have learned:

    • how a serious game is structured
    • which steps are essential to building a serious game
    • which steps are 'nice to have' when they build a serious game
    • that they are way more qualified to build their own serious games than they thought
    • how efficient a serious game is to learn new things
    • how highly corruptible I am


    Note that I always try to co-present with Leonardo DiCaprio but, sometimes, he is too busy to come ;-)
    I hosted it successfully several times in Europe (Agile France, Agile Tour Paris, Xebicon and smaller events) last year so the structure is solid.

    Slides, in French, are available here. The workshop (and its slides) will, of course, be in English with the possibility for attendees to ask me anything in French if they are more comfortable with this language

  • Liked Martin Aziz
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Martin Aziz - "When do you need it by?" Business-Agility Metrics in an Agile World

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    “When will it be done?” is a question asked in just about every business I’ve encountered, Agile or otherwise. In this metrics-focused session we will explore why that question is so hard to answer and whether it is even the right question to ask.

    We will explore current thinking about measurement in knowledge work fields. How every business needs to identify their own appropriate metrics to measure for their own business challenges and goals. While metrics are always unique for each individual business context, we will identify 4 metric categories identified from the Fit for Purpose framework.

    To connect these concepts to your Agile organization we explore going past looking at measurement as a team phenomena and connect this to the level of services or value streams.

    Digging further we continue to examine questions around measuring and predicting delivery times. We contrast prediction approaches using deterministic methods vs probabilistic methods. And consider multiple sources of variability that make predictions challenging and often impossible.

    We conclude by considering more appropriate questions to replace “When will it be done?” Rather asking “When do we need it” followed by “and so, when should start?”

  • Liked Scott Ambler
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Scott Ambler - Choose Your WoW! A Disciplined Agile Delivery Handbook for Optimizing Your Way of Working (WoW)

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    We like to say that agile teams own their own process by choosing their way of working, their “WoW.” This of course is easier said than done because there are several aspects to WoW. First, our team needs to know how to choose the appropriate lifecycle for the situation that we face. Should we take a Scrum-based approach, a lean/Kanban-based approach, a continuous delivery approach, or an exploratory/lean startup approach? Second, what practices should the team adopt? How do they fit together? When should we apply them? Third, what artifacts should the team create? When should they be created? To what level of detail? Finally, how do we evolve our WoW as we experiment and learn?

    There are several strategies that we could choose to follow when we tailor and evolve our WoW. One approach is to bootstrap our WoW, to figure it out on our own. This works, but it is a very slow and expensive strategy in practice. Another approach is to hire an agile coach, but sadly in practice the majority of coaches seem to be like professors who are only a chapter or two ahead of their students. Or we could take a more disciplined, streamlined approach and leverage the experiences of the thousands of teams who have already struggled through the very issues that our team currently faces. In this talk you’ll discover how to develop your WoW without starting from scratch and without having to rely on the limited experience and knowledge of “agile coaches.”

  • Liked Dave Dame
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Dave Dame / Aaron Sampson, PMI-ACP, ITILv3, SMC - Your Proxy is Killing Your Product...One Delay at a Time

    90 Mins
    Workshop
    Beginner

    A supported Product Owner has the power to prioritize. An empowered Product Owner has the power to say 'No'!

    The Product Owner is the most underutilized and unsupported role in large organizations that are trying to increase their speed to market. Product Owners are only business people playing a 'weekend dad' to the team or they are merely only writing requirements for the team.

    Companies that are successful in delivering products to market empower the Product Owner. The Product Owner has one leg in Product Management and the other leg with the Scrum Team. The empowered Product Owner engages the business, customers, engineering, design, sales groups as stakeholders. They are empowered to optimize value by creating vision and context to enable teams to deliver products people want to buy and are technically sound to maintain and scale.

    In this workshop, we will help you unleash this opportunity and guide you in understanding the role of an empowered Product Owner.

  • Liked Gil Broza
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Gil Broza - How to Make Real Collaboration Possible

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    Collaboration is generally considered a net positive, and everyone knows it’s a key principle of Agile. Yet most Agile teams -- even those that seem to work well together -- don’t collaborate nearly enough, and thus don’t reach their full potential. It takes attention and work to make collaboration possible, let alone appealing and practical! In this interactive talk, the author of “The Human Side of Agile” explains the not-so-short list of not-so-simple factors that get in the way of real collaboration, and provides a process for determining actions that will make collaboration possible.

  • Liked Matt Dominici
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Matt Dominici - Self Organizing for Fun And Profit

    40 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate
    1. Have an already successful company
    2. Read “Agile At Scale” article in latest HBR
    3. "Go Agile" (Pay large sums of $ to a large consultancy)
    4. ????
    5. Profit

    Self Organizing teams are the heart of agile software development. The Agile Manifesto practically reads as if it was written by a Team who were sick of being told how to do their job… “We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it…”

    As in “We will figure this out, if you’d just LET US!”

    But for all the leadership training and blogs about how important an ‘agile mindset’ is, most teams are simply never allowed to sufficiently self organize.

    In this brief interactive session, we’ll uncover what it means to be part of a self-organized team, the boundaries of self-organization, and how Managers and Scrum Masters can exercise servant leadership by enabling teams to self-organize.

  • Liked Michael Sahota
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Michael Sahota - Wave 2 of Agile: Living The Agile Mindset

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    Wave 2 of Agile is a way to understand the high-performance results that come from Being Agile. We know many in our industry have fallen into the trap or “Doing Agile” – where people lose sight of the objectives and lasting results.

    Wave 2 is about Living Agile. It is how we show up. It is how we work with people and organizations to shape the Culture. It is living Mahatma Gandhi's truth:

    “Be the change that you want to see in the world”.

    When we focus on our own behaviour, we model Being Agile. This is the only way to invite the Agile Mindset. This is Wave 2 Agile. We stop creating conflict and resistance. We become the effective leaders and influencers of lasting change in our organizations.

    “To be or not to be? That is the question.”

  • Liked Savita Pahuja
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Savita Pahuja / Mariete Sequera Hernandez - Empathy Driven Product Vision – the art of creating an impactful product vision using emotions and magic of visual effects

    40 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    "Customers don’t buy products, they hire products to do a job” – Clayton Christensen

    • Are your customers ready to buy your product even before you release it?
    • Are your customers inspired by your product?
    • Is your product vision aligned with your customers’ needs?
    • Does your product vision motivate your team?

    Join us to experience a new way of creating an empathy-driven product vision, a powerful tool to start your journey of creating the right products or services. Experience the power of Emotions inspired by Human-Centered Design concepts, iterative feedback loops, and Visual creativity.

    With this approach, customers and team are involved and convinced with your product or service right from the start.

    A few benefits of empathy-driven product vision are:

    1) Seeing Is Believing: visualization has a better impact on the mind

    2) Easy to understand and getting feedback from the customers

    3) Helpful for marketing and sales to think of their product strategy

    4) Empower team to be focused for the product goal in their whole development cycle

    5) Helpful for start-ups to pitch a new product idea or invention to a potential investor

    6) The team understands better, the vision of the new product initiatives by the company

  • Liked Cherie Silas
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Cherie Silas - Power Coaching – Pushing the Boundaries to build better teams

    60 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    Elevator Pitch

    Sometimes teams need more than just questions. They need scrum masters and coaches who are courageous enough to have the hard conversations, challenge their decisions, push them to the next level. During this session we will introduce participants to some anti-patterns that have arisen in the scrum master and agile coaching communities and discuss ways to break free!

    Description:

    Coaching Agile Teams is all about asking questions and allowing them to self organize, right? Well, that's just part of the mission. During this session we will introduce participants to some anti-patterns that have arisen in the scrum master and agile coaching communities and discuss ways to break free!

    Sometimes teams need more than just questions. They need scrum masters and coaches who are courageous enough to have the hard conversations, challenge their decisions, push them to the next level. However, sometimes we push our teams a bit too hard and create negative conflict. It's times like this when we need to demonstrate how to reach out and make the first move to repair the relationship. We will introduce the concept of repair bids to help in this area.

    Lastly, we learn a model to put into practice to create a coaching alliance with teams so you can be in agreement on how you will work together for their best interest and improvement over a period of time.

    The reason we chose to create this session is that over the past few years we have noticed that as people are learning more about coaching they are getting out of balance and believing that the only thing that coaches are allowed to do is ask questions. We've noticed that scrum masters lean so far in the direction of self organization that they no longer believe they can challenge teams to grow or to move beyond where the team decides to be. We believe that the root of the problem rests in the fact that people are learning a bit about coaching but not actually learning how to be a coach. We would like to introduce to the attendees the more direct coaching methods that are available for use such as 1) direct communication, 2) challenging, 3) courageous questions that push the edge of the comfort zone, etc.

    Session is collaborative and includes interaction with the participants throughout. Also has collaborative exercises.

  • Liked Daniel Doiron
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Daniel Doiron - Tameflow : The Real Kanban - The Path to Hyper Performance

    Daniel Doiron
    Daniel Doiron
    President
    Agile Agonist
    schedule 10 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Advanced

    In today's agile, scaling of any framework comes with its own ... framework! Not so with Real Kanban as the scaling approach is to simply do more of it.

    The Real Kanban approach from Steve Tendon supports all flows - Operational, Financial, Informational & Psychological - by proposing the exact same models at the team, project, portfolio and enterprise level. Talk about robustness !

    Operational Flow (How well are we delivering?) deals with reducing cycle time so that work in progress does not stall in the system accumulating costs. By reducing cycle time - the time an item spends in the system - Operational expenses are trimmed leading the way to more productivity.

    Financial Flow (How much wealth are we creating?) recognizes throughput - the number of unit coming out of the system per unit of time - as the ultimate economic indicator for sales. Having a healthy beat is key to financial health.

    Informational Flow (How well are we communicating?) uses visualization and metrics from the Theory of Constraints and Throughput Accounting to ensures system thinking behavior and alignment.

    Psychological Flow (How happy are out people?) - The Real Kanban approach also allows employees to increase their skills and capabilities with WIP control, so that they can tame by themselves the boundaries of boredom and anxiety to always find a way to better themselves at their pace with the ever present slack existing in a Kanban system. The benefits - psychological flow - resulting from this system thinking's approach is to leverage the consciousness level and lead to continuous improvement by supplying metrics that guide each decision.

    Teachings from Queuing Theory, Tameflow, Real Options and other fascinating Kanban and Lean tools will be presented.

  • Liked Sam Tabbara
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Sam Tabbara - End to End Enterprise Agile Program Delivery, yes even in large regulatory initatives

    Sam Tabbara
    Sam Tabbara
    Sr. Consultant
    Agile By Design
    schedule 9 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Experience Report
    Intermediate

    A walkthrough of my experience as a portfolio coach leading teams of agile coaches supporting large (60million+, 120person+) regulatory programs in the financial services industry.

    Comparing the similarities during my time leading a team of transformation coaches and scrummasters delivering customer-facing new technology at Bell, in the regulated telecom space.

  • Liked Dan Neumann
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Dan Neumann - Agile Assessment: Helpful Remedy or Harmful Toxin?

    Dan Neumann
    Dan Neumann
    Sr. Agile Coach
    AgileThought
    schedule 9 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    Agile is a set of values and a mindset. As such, it can be hard to answer questions that leadership often asks. These questions include: How agile are we? Are we getting more agile? What are the growth opportunities for our team? To address this customer desire, there are now many assessment frameworks available in the Agile space.

    Many organizations use assessments to determine their level of agility. This session will introduce several assessment approaches and tools. Like medicine, when used incorrectly, the results can be toxic. We will explore the merits, potential uses, and possible downsides of each approach.

    You will leave this session understanding more about your options, as well as insights for framing an assessment that fit your needs best when trying to measure your organization's culture and teams.

  • Liked Dave Dame
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Dave Dame / Dave Tung - Is your Agile Inclusive?

    40 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    Agile is about keeping pace with change. Inclusion ensures we bring everyone along with us.

    Agile initially brought a bunch of individuals cross-functional specialists together to work as a team. This cross-functional team was able to deliver complex products more quickly. The concept of diverse teammates looking at a problem and sharing their perspective from their skill background proved to be the ideal way in creating solutions that meet the needs of domestic customers.

    As companies execute on their digital strategy, products are now global. Having cross-functional teams are no longer sufficient. Agile teams need to be cross-functional AND diverse to meet the needs of global customers.

    In our talk, Dave and Dave will discuss the importance and competitive need to make your teams diverse. They will also share their experiences of integrating diverse members into the team.

  • Liked Pawel Mysliwiec
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Pawel Mysliwiec - Stop protecting your Scrum Team and removing impediments! - debunking most persistent misunderstandings behind the Scrum Master role

    Pawel Mysliwiec
    Pawel Mysliwiec
    Enabler
    Pyxis Technologies
    schedule 8 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Intermediate

    'Talk to our Scrum Master if you want to discuss something with me', 'Sorry, the team has already started their Sprint, you will need to wait for another couple of weeks', 'If only these middle managers understood what Scrum is all about!', 'Lets place this impediment in the 'blocked' column and assign it to the Scrum Master'....

    I could continue citing these quotes for quite a while. Do they sound familiar ?

    If so no worries, that's how the Scrum Master role is being understood after assisting to a 1, 2 or 3-days Scrum class (followed by a certification, or not). While sometimes some of these may be options that bring the most value to the team and to the organization as a whole - on a short term, far too often it becomes a 'recipe' on how to act as a 'good Scrum Master'.

    Digging into my own 10 years of experience (mistakes, failures, and, some successes here and there), complemented with powerful insights from experienced practitioners, this talk aims to help the profession of Scrum Masters (and Agile Coaches of course) in stepping up their game and contribute to sustainable, long term organizational benefits while still continuing their service to the team.

  • Liked Gaël Rebmann
    keyboard_arrow_down

    Gaël Rebmann - Better than a (transformation) plan, a battle map

    Gaël Rebmann
    Gaël Rebmann
    Agile Coach
    Pyxis Great Lakes
    schedule 9 months ago
    Sold Out!
    40 Mins
    Talk
    Beginner

    Recently, I faced a new challenge.
    As an Agile coach, I audited an organization. Everyone was happy with my observations so I started to begin my intervention by picking my first actions among the ones I recommended. Then the management asked me why these things first. I simply stated that according to my observations that was the most urgent things to do. But they had a different opinion... Was my opinion better than theirs?
    I needed something... Visual management? Co-built roadmap? That would still have been duels of opinions... And then came the idea of a battle map. Something than could help everyone understand why one move is the best to do first given our situation, why one action is more pertinent than another and the criteria that lead to the best decisions.

    In this presentation, I'll explain the origins of the map, how it works and how to use it, as well as how to build it efficiently