“When will it be done?” That is the first question your customers ask you once you start work for them. And, for the most part, it is the only thing they are interested in until you deliver. Whether your process is predictable or not is judged by the accuracy of your answer. Think about how many times you have been asked that question and think how many times you have been wrong. Now think about how much harder it is to answer that question when practicing Agile at scale. Your customers most likely feel like they have better odds of winning the lottery than they do of your next Agile project coming in on time. That you don't know your odds of success is not necessarily your fault. You have been taught to collect the wrong metrics, implement the wrong policies, and make the wrong decisions. Until now. This session will introduce how to utilize the basic metrics of flow to more effectively manage the uncertainty associated with very large scale software development. In it, we will discuss how to leverage the power of advanced analytics like Cumulative Flow Diagrams, Cycle Time Scatterplots, and Monte Carlo Simulations to drive predictability at all levels of the organization. Your customers demand better predictability. Isn’t it time you delivered?

The metrics of flow provide a comprehensive, analytics driven methodology for agile development at scale. By capturing real-time flow metrics and by using powerful analytical tools such as the Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD), Cycle Time Scatterplot, and Monte Carlo Simulations one is able to more effectively manage the complexity associated with very large scale software development. Better management of complexity ultimately leads to better predictability.

Further, these metrics provide transparency at all organizational layers. At the team level the metrics provide real-time information and act as a catalyst for continuous improvement; and at retrospectives the teams will always have the most accurate, critical and objective information upon which to base any action. For Scrum Masters and the team the metrics provide insight and levers to pull. This level of visibility is crucial to decision making as most organizations and teams can perform multiple types of work across varied layers of work-units.

Similarly, at the enterprise and/or program level the metrics provide the transparency required to effectively manage complex and geographically distributed development and maintenance environments. One is able to track progress, productivity and pro-actively act on systemic issues such as infrastructure concerns, resource capacity, cross-team dependencies, and integration.

Flow metrics are the most effective means to manage to predictable outcomes in an inherently uncertain field. The use of Scatterplots and Monte Carlo Simulation based on real historical metrics eliminates any need for subjective estimation. At all levels of an organization, these metrics provide much higher levels of confidence and more realistic projections.